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MLB Debriefings

All our statistical post-game MLB analyses, generated the day after each resolved game.

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⚾ MLB·Jul 11, 2026

CLE @ MIA

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Cleveland Guardians (CLE) with a 49.0% projected probability of victory, while the public prediction market assigned a 52.4% likelihood to the Miami Marlins (MIA). The divergence of -3.4 percentage points reflected a calibrated as

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⚾ MLB·Jul 11, 2026

PHI @ DET

The Diamond Signal projection favored Detroit by a narrow margin (50.6% to Philadelphia’s 49.4%), aligning with the final outcome despite the significant run differential. The favored team, Detroit, secured a decisive 10-2 victory, validating the directional correctness of the mo

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⚾ MLB·Jul 11, 2026

MIL @ PIT

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT) at 52.5%, with Milwaukee (MIL) at 47.5%—a divergence of -0.8 percentage points from the public market’s 53.3% assessment. The model’s statistical foundation, enriched dynamic-rating, was designed to accoun

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⚾ MLB·Jul 10, 2026

AZ @ SD

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection assigned Arizona a 42.0% probability of victory against San Diego, with a medium-confidence dynamic rating. The final outcome—AZ 3, SD 1—validated the model’s favored team designation, as the underdog secured the win. The one-run margin align

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⚾ MLB·Jul 10, 2026

MIL @ STL

The Diamond Signal model projected a 56.7% probability of victory for STL, favoring the Cardinals with a medium confidence signal. The actual outcome saw MIL secure a decisive 8-4 victory, invalidating the projection. The game outcome diverged from the statistical expectation, th

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⚾ MLB·Jul 10, 2026

LAA @ TEX

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored Texas (55.4%) over Los Angeles (44.6%), aligning with the final outcome as Texas claimed a narrow 7-6 victory. The model’s 1.08-run margin between the teams (LAA projected 4.73 runs, TEX 5.81 runs) reflected a contest that remaine

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⚾ MLB·Jul 10, 2026

BOS @ CWS

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Chicago White Sox (CWS) with a 59.0% projected probability of victory, while the Boston Red Sox (BOS) were assigned a 41.0% chance. The final result saw Boston secure a 2-1 victory, marking an outcome that deviated from the model’

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⚾ MLB·Jul 10, 2026

CHC @ BAL

The Diamond Signal projection correctly favored the Baltimore Orioles with a 57.8% expected probability of victory, aligning with the eventual outcome. While the Cubs’ offensive output fell short of expectations (2 runs scored), the Orioles’ defensive execution and bullpen reliab

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⚾ MLB·Jul 10, 2026

NYY @ TB

The Diamond Signal projection favored the New York Yankees (49.6%) over the Tampa Bay Rays (50.4%) in a matchup where the model identified a calibrated edge favoring NYY. The actual outcome validated the directional call—NYY secured a decisive 12-4 victory—though the margin excee

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⚾ MLB·Jul 10, 2026

SEA @ MIA

The Diamond Signal projection favored the Seattle Mariners with a 48.2 % estimated probability of victory, though our model explicitly flagged the matchup as a **WATCH** scenario with **medium confidence** due to the dynamic-rating components. The actual outcome—an 8-4 road loss

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⚾ MLB·Jul 10, 2026

PHI @ CIN

The Diamond Signal projection of a 43.7% favored probability for the Philadelphia Phillies against the Cincinnati Reds was validated by the 1-0 final outcome in favor of the visiting team. While the projected probability did not account for the exact run differential (a 1-run vic

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⚾ MLB·Jul 10, 2026

KC @ NYM

The Diamond Signal’s projected probability of 54.1% favoring the New York Mets (NYM) aligned closely with the game’s outcome, as NYM secured a 7-3 victory over the Kansas City Royals (KC). The favored team’s triumph validates the model’s directional call, though the margin of vic

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⚾ MLB·Jul 10, 2026

CLE @ MIN

The Diamond Signal projection for the CLE @ MIN matchup on July 9, 2026, anticipated a competitive contest with the Cleveland Guardians favored at 42.9% to the Minnesota Twins' 57.1%, operating under a medium-confidence signal with a "WATCH" classification. The final outcome vali

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⚾ MLB·Jul 10, 2026

COL @ SF

The Diamond model projected a San Francisco victory with a 52.7% projected probability, favoring the Giants by a narrow margin. The final outcome aligned with the model’s directional call, though the magnitude of the divergence exceeded expectations. The Rockies were held to two

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⚾ MLB·Jul 10, 2026

ATH @ DET

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored Detroit by a narrow margin, assigning the Tigers a 51.8% projected probability of victory against the Athletics. The model’s calibration suggested a moderate-confidence scenario in which Detroit’s superior dynamic rating—driven by for

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⚾ MLB·Jul 10, 2026

ATL @ PIT

The Diamond Signal model projected a tightly contested matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates, with Atlanta holding a marginal 49.3% projected probability of victory. The final outcome—an Atlanta victory by a score of 10–5—aligned with the directional call of t

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⚾ MLB·Jul 10, 2026

NYY @ TB

The Diamond Signal model projected Tampa Bay as the favored team with a 51.1% probability, assigning a medium confidence rating and designating the matchup as a WATCH scenario. The public market, however, assigned a higher projected probability of 58.3% to the Rays. In reality, t

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⚾ MLB·Jul 9, 2026

COL @ LAD

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Colorado Rockies (COL) by 49.0% to the Los Angeles Dodgers’ (LAD) 51.0%, assigning a medium-confidence signal with an edge. The final outcome saw the Dodgers secure a narrow 4-3 victory, validating the model’s directional lean des

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⚾ MLB·Jul 9, 2026

MIL @ STL

Diamond Signal’s pre-match analysis projected a 58.0 % probability of victory for the St. Louis Cardinals (STL) against the Milwaukee Brewers (MIL), favoring STL as the stronger statistical candidate. The model’s calibration gap of +15.5 percentage points diverged significantly f

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⚾ MLB·Jul 9, 2026

BOS @ CWS

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Chicago White Sox (CWS) with a 56.3% probability of victory, while the public prediction market assigned a 51.5% likelihood to the same outcome. The actual result, a 5-0 shutout victory by the Boston Red Sox (BOS), invalidated the

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