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MLB Debriefings

All our statistical post-game MLB analyses, generated the day after each resolved game.

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⚾ MLB·May 23, 2026

SEA @ KC

The Diamond Signal model projected a closely contested matchup between the Seattle Mariners (SEA) and Kansas City Royals (KC), assigning a 50.0 % projected probability to each team. The model favored Seattle by a narrow margin, with a medium-confidence signal classified as "WATCH

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⚾ MLB·May 23, 2026

LAD @ MIL

The Diamond Signal projection anticipated a Milwaukee Brewers victory with a 53.1% projected probability, while the public prediction market favored the Los Angeles Dodgers at 49.1%. The actual outcome validated the Diamond Signal’s favored team, as the Brewers secured a decisive

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⚾ MLB·May 23, 2026

PIT @ TOR

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored Toronto with a 56.0% modeled probability of victory, reflecting a moderate analytical confidence. The final outcome aligned with the favored team, as Toronto secured a 6-2 road win. While the run differential (4 runs) exceeded the

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⚾ MLB·May 23, 2026

CWS @ SF

The Diamond Signal model projected a CWS victory with a 46.2% probability, favoring the White Sox despite the public market assigning them a 49.6% chance. The outcome—Chicago White Sox defeating the San Francisco Giants 9-4—aligned with the projection’s directional call, though t

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⚾ MLB·May 23, 2026

ATH @ SD

The Diamond Signal projection favored the San Diego Padres (SD) by a narrow margin of 50.4% to 49.6%, indicating a closely contested matchup. The model assigned low confidence to this projection due to the minimal separation between the teams. In reality, the Padres decisively de

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⚾ MLB·May 23, 2026

TEX @ LAA

The Diamond Signal projection favored Texas (TEX) with a 38.7% win probability against the Los Angeles Angels (LAA) at 61.3%, though the model's confidence was rated MEDIUM. The game outcome invalidated the projection, as LAA secured a 9-6 victory, contradicting the pre-match exp

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⚾ MLB·May 22, 2026

COL @ AZ

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Arizona Diamondbacks (AZ) with a 59.2% probability of victory, while the Colorado Rockies (COL) were assigned a 40.8% projected probability. The actual outcome validated the directional call, as AZ secured the win by a 2-1 scoreli

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⚾ MLB·May 22, 2026

PIT @ STL

The Diamond Signal model projected a 54.4 % probability of a St. Louis Cardinals (STL) victory against the Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT) on May 21, 2026, favoring the home team with low confidence and a "WATCH" signal. The actual outcome diverged from this projection, as Pittsburgh se

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⚾ MLB·May 22, 2026

TOR @ NYY

The Diamond Signal projection estimated a 49.3 % projected probability for the Toronto Blue Jays against the New York Yankees, with the favored team being TOR by a narrow margin (49.3 % vs 50.7 %). The projected confidence was classified as MEDIUM, with a WATCH signal indicating

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⚾ MLB·May 22, 2026

ATL @ MIA

The Diamond Signal model projected a Miami Marlins victory with a 51.1% probability, deviating from the public market’s 44.6% projection. The match outcome, however, favored the Atlanta Braves by a decisive 9-3 scoreline, outright invalidating our initial projection. The disparit

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⚾ MLB·May 22, 2026

NYM @ WSH

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Washington Nationals (WSH) with a 53.4% projected probability of victory, while the New York Mets (NYM) were assigned a 46.6% share. The game outcome diverged from this projection, as NYM secured a narrow 2-1 victory in a tightly

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⚾ MLB·May 22, 2026

ATH @ LAA

--- Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Los Angeles Angels (LAA) with a 52.7% probability of victory, reflecting a moderate confidence level under a WATCH signal. The model’s median outcome aligned with a 2-1 Angels advantage, though the precise final score of 3-2 i

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⚾ MLB·May 22, 2026

CLE @ DET

The Diamond Signal’s projected probability favored Detroit (50.3%) over Cleveland (49.7%) in a matchup where the favored team held a slight edge. The outcome, a 3-1 victory for Cleveland, invalidated the projection by a single run margin. While the divergence was minimal, the res

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⚾ MLB·May 21, 2026

TOR @ NYY

The Diamond Signal model projected a narrow advantage for the Toronto Blue Jays (49.0 %) over the New York Yankees (51.0 %) on May 20, 2026, favoring Toronto with a low-confidence call (EDGE). The match concluded with the Blue Jays securing a 2–1 victory, validating the direction

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⚾ MLB·May 21, 2026

LAD @ SD

The Diamond Signal model projected a San Diego victory with a 51.0% probability, narrowly favoring the home team despite a thin edge. The actual outcome saw Los Angeles dominate with a 4-0 shutout, a result that diverged materially from the statistical expectation. While the mode

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⚾ MLB·May 21, 2026

CWS @ SEA

Diamond Signal’s projected probability of a Chicago White Sox (CWS) victory stood at 49.1% against the Seattle Mariners (SEA) on May 20, 2026, slightly favoring the CWS as the model’s favored team. The game outcome diverged from the projection, with SEA securing a 5-4 victory in

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⚾ MLB·May 21, 2026

ATL @ MIA

The Diamond Signal projection of a 44.1% favored probability for Atlanta was substantially validated by the outcome of this match. While the projected probability did not precisely align with the final score differential, the core expectation of Atlanta’s victory materialized. Th

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⚾ MLB·May 21, 2026

NYM @ WSH

--- Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Washington Nationals (WSH) with a 53.2% projected probability of victory, while the public prediction markets assigned only a 46.3% chance to WSH. The game outcome—an 8-4 victory for Washington—aligns with the statistical expe

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⚾ MLB·May 21, 2026

TEX @ COL

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored Texas by 41.8% to Colorado’s 58.2%, with a low-confidence classification and a WATCH signal indicating elevated variance. The actual outcome materialized in favor of Texas, with a final score of 5–4, validating the directional cal

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⚾ MLB·May 21, 2026

CLE @ DET

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Cleveland Guardians (CLE) at 49.4%, narrowly below Detroit’s (DET) 50.6%, with a low-confidence signal classified as WATCH. The model’s calibration indicated marginal uncertainty, though the favored team designation aligned with t

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