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All our statistical post-game MLB analyses, generated the day after each resolved game.

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⚾ MLB·Jul 4, 2026

SF @ COL

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored San Francisco by a narrow 50.0 % to 50.0 % split, though the model ultimately identified the Giants as the statistical favorite with medium confidence. The divergence in projected probabilities (Diamond: 50.0 %, public market: 41.8 %)

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⚾ MLB·Jul 4, 2026

MIA @ ATH

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored Miami (MIA) with a 47.5% probability of victory, deviating from the public market’s 55.5% valuation—a divergence of -8.0 percentage points. The model’s medium-confidence "WATCH" signal reflected uncertainty driven by the dynamic inter

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⚾ MLB·Jul 4, 2026

PIT @ WSH

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored Washington by a narrow margin, assigning a 50.8% probability of victory compared to Pittsburgh’s 49.2%. The game’s outcome—where Washington secured a 9-5 win—validated the model’s directional call, as the favored team indeed triumphed

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⚾ MLB·Jul 4, 2026

TB @ HOU

The Diamond Signal projection accurately anticipated the Tampa Bay Rays' victory over the Houston Astros, though the final score diverged slightly from the expected outcome. Our model assigned a 45.1% projected probability to TB, with the favored team (HOU) holding a 54.9% share—

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⚾ MLB·Jul 4, 2026

BOS @ LAA

The Diamond Signal model projected a Boston Red Sox victory over the Los Angeles Angels with a 46.6% probability, deviating slightly from public market consensus at 50.9%. The game outcome validated the model’s directional call, as Boston secured a 5-2 win, overturning the pre-ma

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⚾ MLB·Jul 4, 2026

BAL @ CIN

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection for the Baltimore Orioles (BAL) at Cincinnati Reds (CIN) contest on July 3, 2026, assigned a 47.7% projected probability of victory to the visiting Orioles, with the Reds favored at 52.3%. The model flagged the matchup as a *Watch* signal wit

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⚾ MLB·Jul 4, 2026

STL @ CHC

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Chicago Cubs (CHC) with a 54.2% probability of victory, assigning a MEDIUM confidence rating to a WATCH signal. The final result saw the St. Louis Cardinals (STL) deliver a commanding 17-1 rout at Wrigley Field, an outcome tha

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⚾ MLB·Jul 3, 2026

LAA @ SEA

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Los Angeles Angels (LAA) at 49.9% probability, with the Seattle Mariners (SEA) at 50.1%, indicating a near-even matchup. The model’s slight preference for LAA was rooted in dynamic-rating adjustments and contextual factors, re

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⚾ MLB·Jul 3, 2026

CIN @ MIL

The Diamond Signal’s projected probability of 52.6% for the Milwaukee Brewers to secure the victory was invalidated by the final result, as the Cincinnati Reds defeated the Brewers 7-2. While the favored team ultimately lost, the actual outcome did not constitute a significant de

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⚾ MLB·Jul 3, 2026

SD @ LAD

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD) with a 57.2% probability of securing the victory, aligning with the team’s historical and contextual advantages entering the contest. The San Diego Padres (SD) were assessed at 42.8%, reflecting a competi

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⚾ MLB·Jul 3, 2026

PIT @ PHI

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Philadelphia Phillies at a 50.5% projected probability, compared to Pittsburgh’s 49.5%. The model’s MEDIUM-confidence WATCH signal anticipated a closely contested matchup, though the final score of 6–1 in favor of Pittsburgh repre

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⚾ MLB·Jul 3, 2026

MIA @ COL

The Diamond Signal model projected a competitive encounter between the Miami Marlins (MIA) and the Colorado Rockies (COL), assigning a 44.1 % projected probability to MIA’s victory against COL’s 55.9 %. The favored team under our dynamic-rating model was MIA, though the confidenc

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⚾ MLB·Jul 3, 2026

TB @ KC

The Diamond Signal model projected a narrow favored team outcome for Kansas City at 50.3%, with Tampa Bay assigned a 49.7% projected probability. The match concluded with Tampa Bay securing a 5-2 victory, resulting in the underdog outcome being realized. This divergence from the

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⚾ MLB·Jul 3, 2026

CWS @ CLE

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Chicago White Sox (CWS) with a 49.3% probability of victory, while the Cleveland Guardians (CLE) were given a 50.7% projected probability. The game result aligned with the public market’s 49.6% valuation for CWS but diverged from

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⚾ MLB·Jul 2, 2026

TEX @ CLE

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored Cleveland with a 59.8 % probability of victory, while Texas carried the remaining 40.2 % share. The model’s directional call proved accurate: Cleveland defeated Texas by a five-run margin, exceeding the projected outcome but aligning

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⚾ MLB·Jul 2, 2026

LAD @ ATH

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD) with a 49.1% projected probability of victory, a marginal edge over the Athletics (ATH) at 50.9%. The model’s calibration, incorporating dynamic ratings, recent form, rest, travel, weather, park factors,

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⚾ MLB·Jul 2, 2026

CIN @ MIL

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Milwaukee Brewers (MIL) with a 52.6% projected probability of victory, while the Cincinnati Reds (CIN) were assigned a 47.4% chance. The model’s medium-confidence signal suggested a *WATCH* scenario, indicating a competitive match

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⚾ MLB·Jul 2, 2026

MIA @ COL

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Miami Marlins (MIA) by a narrow margin, assigning them a 48.1% projected probability of victory compared to the Colorado Rockies’ (COL) 51.9%. The game outcome did not align with this assessment, as the Rockies secured a 6-3 w

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⚾ MLB·Jul 2, 2026

MIN @ HOU

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Minnesota Twins (MIN) with a 49.5% projected probability of victory, while the public prediction market assigned a 55.1% probability to the Houston Astros (HOU). The final score of MIN 8 — HOU 3 validates the Diamond Signal model’

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⚾ MLB·Jul 2, 2026

STL @ ATL

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored Atlanta by a narrow margin of 51.0% to Saint Louis’ 49.0%, assigning a MEDIUM confidence signal of WATCH. The projection was rooted in a dynamic-rating model that accounted for recent form, rest, travel, weather, park factors, bullpen

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