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⚾ MLB

MLB Debriefings

All our statistical post-game MLB analyses, generated the day after each resolved game.

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⚾ MLB·May 14, 2026

WSH @ CIN

The Diamond Signal model projected a Cincinnati victory with a 53.6% probability, favoring the Reds in a contest classified as a "WATCH" due to low confidence. The actual outcome diverged from the model’s expectation, as Washington secured a one-run triumph in a high-scoring, bac

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⚾ MLB·May 14, 2026

KC @ CWS

The Diamond Signal projection framed Chicago White Sox (CWS) as the favored team with a 53.9% projected probability of victory, contrasting with the Kansas City Royals (KC) at 46.1%. The model assigned a low confidence signal with a "WATCH" classification, indicating elevated var

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⚾ MLB·May 14, 2026

AZ @ TEX

The Diamond Signal model projected a narrow outcome favoring Arizona with a 47.6% projected probability, while the public prediction market placed Texas at a 50.5% favored rate. The game outcome contradicted the model’s assessment, as Texas secured a 6-5 victory in a tightly cont

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⚾ MLB·May 14, 2026

SEA @ HOU

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored Seattle by 48.5% against Houston’s 51.5%, with a classification of LOW confidence and a WATCH signal. The final outcome diverged from this projection, as Houston secured a 4-3 victory in a tightly contested matchup. While the favo

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⚾ MLB·May 14, 2026

SD @ MIL

--- The Diamond Signal model projected a Milwaukee Brewers victory with a 57.4% probability, deviating only slightly from the public prediction market at 57.9%. The observed outcome—San Diego Padres triumphing 3-1—invalidated the statistical projection. While the favored team did

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⚾ MLB·May 14, 2026

MIA @ MIN

--- The Diamond Signal model projected a tightly contested matchup between Miami and Minnesota, assigning a 46.8% probability of victory to the visiting Marlins, with a LOW confidence designation and a WATCH signal type. The final outcome validated the directional projection, as

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⚾ MLB·May 13, 2026

SF @ LAD

```markdown The Diamond Signal model projected a Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD) victory with a 56.5 % probability, favoring the home team despite a "LOW" confidence signal and an "EDGE" type. However, the San Francisco Giants (SF) secured the win, contradicting the statistical outlook

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⚾ MLB·May 13, 2026

NYY @ BAL

```markdown The Diamond Signal model projected a narrow advantage for the Baltimore Orioles (50.7%) over the New York Yankees (49.3%), assigning a "WATCH" signal with low confidence. The game outcome, as captured by the final standings, confirmed the New York Yankees as the winni

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⚾ MLB·May 13, 2026

LAA @ CLE

```markdown Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored Cleveland with a 56.3% probability of victory, while public prediction markets aligned closely at 55.5%. The divergence of +0.8 points reflects a subtle but important calibration difference between statistical modeling and

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⚾ MLB·May 13, 2026

COL @ PIT

```markdown Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT) with a 64.8% projected probability of victory, while the Colorado Rockies (COL) were assigned a 35.2% share. The model’s low confidence classification and "WATCH" signal indicated elevated unce

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⚾ MLB·May 13, 2026

WSH @ CIN

```markdown --- Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Washington Nationals (WSH) with a 48.0 % projected probability of victory, despite the Cincinnati Reds (CIN) being the market-favored team at 56.7 %. The model assigned a **LOW** confidence signal, classifying this

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⚾ MLB·May 13, 2026

DET @ NYM

```markdown Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the New York Mets (NYM) by a narrow margin, assigning them a 50.6% projected probability of victory against the Detroit Tigers (DET). The favored team under our model did indeed secure the win, aligning with our analytical

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⚾ MLB·May 13, 2026

AZ @ TEX

```markdown The Diamond Signal projection favored Arizona (48.7%) over Texas (51.3%) in a matchup where the public market assigned a 54.3% probability to the Rangers. The game concluded with Texas securing the victory, deflating the Diamond’s projected outcome. While the post-gam

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⚾ MLB·May 13, 2026

TB @ TOR

```markdown Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Toronto Blue Jays (52.6%) over the Tampa Bay Rays (47.4%) with a "WATCH" signal, indicating low confidence in the model’s edge. The actual match outcome contradicted the projection, as the Rays secured the win despite

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⚾ MLB·May 13, 2026

STL @ ATH

```markdown The Diamond Signal projection favored Atlanta (ATH) by a projected probability of 52.0% against St. Louis (STL)’s 48.0%, assigning a LOW confidence rating and classifying the match as a WATCH scenario. The game outcome diverged from this projection, with St. Louis sec

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⚾ MLB·May 13, 2026

MIA @ MIN

```markdown Diamond Signal’s pre-match analysis projected a 49.0 % victory probability for MIA against MIN, with a low-confidence *WATCH* signal indicating elevated uncertainty. The model favored MIA by 2.0 percentage points despite MIN’s 51.0 % projected share, reflecting a cali

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⚾ MLB·May 13, 2026

SEA @ HOU

```markdown Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored Seattle by 43.6% to Houston’s 56.4%, with a low-confidence signal classified as a WATCH. The game concluded with Seattle emerging as the winner, validating the directional call despite the absence of granular scoring data.

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⚾ MLB·May 13, 2026

SD @ MIL

```markdown Our pre-match projection favored the Milwaukee Brewers (MIL) with a 54.8% projected probability of victory, reflecting a modest low-confidence advantage over the San Diego Padres (SD). The game concluded with Milwaukee securing the win, aligning with our analytical fr

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⚾ MLB·May 12, 2026

NYY @ BAL

```markdown The Diamond Signal model projected a narrowly favored New York Yankees (49.6%) over the Baltimore Orioles (50.4%) in a matchup categorized as a **WATCH** signal with **LOW** confidence. The final outcome—Baltimore’s victory—validated the directional alignment of the p

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⚾ MLB·May 12, 2026

TB @ TOR

```markdown Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Toronto Blue Jays (55.2 %) over the Tampa Bay Rays (44.8 %) with a signal strength classified as LOW and a SERIES_RULE designation. The directional call aligned with the eventual outcome—an away victory for the Rays—th

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