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MLB Debriefings

All our statistical post-game MLB analyses, generated the day after each resolved game.

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⚾ MLB·May 18, 2026

CHC @ CWS

The Diamond Signal projected the Chicago White Sox (CWS) as the favored team with a 58.6% probability of victory, while the Chicago Cubs (CHC) were assigned a 41.4% projected probability. The model’s confidence was categorized as LOW, and the projection type was marked as an EDGE

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⚾ MLB·May 18, 2026

MIL @ MIN

The Diamond Signal model projected a Minnesota Twins (MIN) victory with a 58.8% probability, favoring the home team by a narrow margin. The final outcome validated the directional call, as MIN secured a 5-4 win in a tightly contested matchup. While the model correctly identified

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⚾ MLB·May 18, 2026

BOS @ ATL

The Diamond Signal model projected a 59.7% probability of victory for Atlanta, with a low-confidence signal indicating moderate certainty. The final outcome aligned with the projection in terms of winner, as Atlanta defeated Boston by a score of 8-1. While the score differential

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⚾ MLB·May 18, 2026

SD @ SEA

Diamond Signal’s dynamic-rating model projected a Seattle victory with a 60.9% probability, favoring the Mariners based on series context and recent team performance. The projected outcome was not realized, as San Diego secured a decisive 8-3 win, invalidating the favored team’s

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⚾ MLB·May 18, 2026

PHI @ PIT

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT) with a 55.5 % probability of victory against the Philadelphia Phillies (PHI), a projection rooted in a dynamic-rating model incorporating recent performance, rest, travel, weather, and bullpen strength

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⚾ MLB·May 18, 2026

SF @ ATH

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the San Francisco Giants (SF) with a 49.4 % projected probability of victory over the Atlanta Braves (ATH), a slight underdog scenario that defied the public market’s 57.4 % valuation in favor of the Braves. The model’s low-confid

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⚾ MLB·May 18, 2026

CIN @ CLE

Diamond Signal's pre-match projection favored the Cleveland Guardians (CLE) with a 53.3% probability of victory, a modest advantage over the Cincinnati Reds (CIN) at 46.7%. The divergence between our model and public market expectations was modest (-6.4 percentage points), reflec

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⚾ MLB·May 18, 2026

LAD @ LAA

The Diamond Signal’s projected probability favored the Los Angeles Angels (LAA) with 50.5% against the Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD), reflecting a narrow calibration gap where the public market assigned only 43.7% to LAA. The divergence of +6.8 percentage points suggested statistical

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⚾ MLB·May 18, 2026

TOR @ DET

The Diamond Signal model projected a Detroit Tigers (DET) victory with a 50.9% probability, favoring the home team by a narrow margin. The Toronto Blue Jays (TOR), despite being the underdog in the model’s calculus, executed a decisive 4-1 win, defying the statistical consensus.

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⚾ MLB·May 18, 2026

AZ @ COL

Diamond Signal’s pre-match assessment projected the Arizona Diamondbacks (AZ) to secure a narrow victory over the Colorado Rockies (COL), with a projected probability of 46.9% compared to the public market’s 43.3%. The final score of 8-6 in favor of AZ validates the model’s direc

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⚾ MLB·May 18, 2026

NYY @ NYM

Diamond Signal’s projected probability of a New York Mets (NYM) victory stood at 54.5%, a modest advantage over the visiting New York Yankees (NYY), who were assigned a 45.5% projected probability. The matchup was classified under a **WATCH** signal with **LOW** confidence, indic

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⚾ MLB·May 18, 2026

BAL @ WSH

The Diamond Signal projection assigned a 47.4% projected probability of victory to the Baltimore Orioles (BAL), with Washington (WSH) favored at 52.6%. The model’s low confidence signal ("WATCH") indicated non-trivial uncertainty, primarily due to trailing deficit adjustments and

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⚾ MLB·May 18, 2026

TEX @ HOU

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection for this MLB encounter between the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros on May 17, 2026, estimated a 45.8% probability of victory for Texas and 54.2% for Houston, with the favored team being Texas despite low model confidence (WATCH signal type).

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⚾ MLB·May 18, 2026

MIA @ TB

The Diamond Signal model projected a Tampa Bay victory with a 55.6% probability, favoring the Rays by a narrow margin. The actual outcome validated the directional call, as Tampa Bay secured a 6-3 win in a matchup where Miami’s offensive struggles were decisive. The decisive fact

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⚾ MLB·May 18, 2026

KC @ STL

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the St. Louis Cardinals (52.2 %) over the Kansas City Royals (47.8 %) with a low-confidence classification under the WATCH signal type. The model’s rationale centered on a narrow but statistically significant edge derived from enriche

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⚾ MLB·May 17, 2026

PHI @ PIT

The pre-match projection favored the Pittsburgh Pirates by a narrow margin of 51.0% to the Philadelphia Phillies' 49.0%, with the model's confidence rated as low due to an edge signal. The divergence between Diamond Signal's statistical framework and public prediction markets was

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⚾ MLB·May 17, 2026

KC @ STL

The Diamond Signal projection for the Kansas City Royals' away matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals on May 16, 2026, indicated a 61.6% projected probability of victory for the Cardinals, with a confidence classification of LOW and a SIGNAL designation. The actual outcome valid

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⚾ MLB·May 17, 2026

MIA @ TB

The Diamond Signal model projected Tampa Bay as the favored team with a 56.6% probability of victory, citing strong home-field advantages and pitcher matchups as primary drivers. The actual outcome saw Miami secure a decisive 10-5 win, invalidating the projection. This divergence

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⚾ MLB·May 17, 2026

BOS @ ATL

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection, which favored the Atlanta Braves by a 55.8% to 44.2% split, diverged from the on-field outcome where the Boston Red Sox secured a 3-2 victory. While the favored team did not win, the calibration gap between projected probability and actu

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⚾ MLB·May 17, 2026

NYY @ NYM

The Diamond projection favored the New York Mets (NYM) with a 54.3% projected probability of victory, which was not realized in the actual outcome. While the favored team was correct, the final score differential (3 runs) exceeded expectations, particularly given the significant

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