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MLB Debriefings

All our statistical post-game MLB analyses, generated the day after each resolved game.

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⚾ MLB·May 21, 2026

LAD @ SD

The Diamond Signal model projected a San Diego victory with a 51.0% probability, narrowly favoring the home team despite a thin edge. The actual outcome saw Los Angeles dominate with a 4-0 shutout, a result that diverged materially from the statistical expectation. While the mode

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⚾ MLB·May 21, 2026

CWS @ SEA

Diamond Signal’s projected probability of a Chicago White Sox (CWS) victory stood at 49.1% against the Seattle Mariners (SEA) on May 20, 2026, slightly favoring the CWS as the model’s favored team. The game outcome diverged from the projection, with SEA securing a 5-4 victory in

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⚾ MLB·May 21, 2026

ATL @ MIA

The Diamond Signal projection of a 44.1% favored probability for Atlanta was substantially validated by the outcome of this match. While the projected probability did not precisely align with the final score differential, the core expectation of Atlanta’s victory materialized. Th

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⚾ MLB·May 21, 2026

NYM @ WSH

--- Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Washington Nationals (WSH) with a 53.2% projected probability of victory, while the public prediction markets assigned only a 46.3% chance to WSH. The game outcome—an 8-4 victory for Washington—aligns with the statistical expe

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⚾ MLB·May 21, 2026

TEX @ COL

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored Texas by 41.8% to Colorado’s 58.2%, with a low-confidence classification and a WATCH signal indicating elevated variance. The actual outcome materialized in favor of Texas, with a final score of 5–4, validating the directional cal

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⚾ MLB·May 21, 2026

CLE @ DET

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Cleveland Guardians (CLE) at 49.4%, narrowly below Detroit’s (DET) 50.6%, with a low-confidence signal classified as WATCH. The model’s calibration indicated marginal uncertainty, though the favored team designation aligned with t

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⚾ MLB·May 21, 2026

SF @ AZ

The Diamond Signal model projected a 52.4 % favored probability for the Arizona Diamondbacks (AZ) against the San Francisco Giants (SF) in this interleague matchup on May 20, 2026. The final outcome validated the directional projection, as AZ secured a 6-3 victory, confirming the

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⚾ MLB·May 21, 2026

ATH @ LAA

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Athletics (ATH) with a 44.7 % probability of victory, while the public prediction market assigned a slightly higher 46.3 % to the Angels (LAA). The divergence of -1.6 percentage points reflected a calibrated expectation of a compe

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⚾ MLB·May 21, 2026

BAL @ TB

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored Tampa Bay with a 53.8% projected probability of victory, a modest calibration that fell within the LOW confidence tier. The public market’s view aligned closely at 52.0%, suggesting general consensus on the Rays’ slight edge. The

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⚾ MLB·May 21, 2026

MIL @ CHC

The Diamond Signal model projected Chicago Cubs (CHC) as the slightly favored team with a 50.9% projected probability of victory, while the public prediction market assigned a marginal 52.0% to the Cubs. The divergence between these projections was limited to -1.1 percentage poin

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⚾ MLB·May 21, 2026

BOS @ KC

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection placed Kansas City as the favored team with a 51.2% projected probability of victory, against Boston’s 48.8%, under a LOW-confidence WATCH signal. The divergence was minor at -0.8 percentage points compared to the public prediction market, wh

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⚾ MLB·May 21, 2026

HOU @ MIN

The Diamond Signal model projected a Minnesota Twins victory with a 57.2% probability, favoring the home team by a narrow margin. The actual outcome validated this projection, as the Twins secured a 4-1 victory over the Houston Astros in a game that unfolded largely in line with

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⚾ MLB·May 20, 2026

CWS @ SEA

The Diamond Signal projection favored the Chicago White Sox (CWS) with a 47.4% projected probability of victory, despite the Seattle Mariners (SEA) being publicly favored at 57.9%. The model’s confidence was classified as LOW, with a calibration gap suggesting a higher degree of

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⚾ MLB·May 20, 2026

HOU @ MIN

The Diamond Signal projected a Minnesota Twins (MIN) victory with a projected probability of 58.0%, while the Houston Astros (HOU) were assigned a 42.0% projected probability. The divergence between projection and outcome is notable given the narrow final margin of 2–1 in favor o

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⚾ MLB·May 20, 2026

CIN @ PHI

The Diamond Signal model projected a CIN victory probability of 42.2% against Philadelphia’s 57.8% favored status, a modest calibration gap that ultimately underestimated the home team’s resilience. The final scoreline—Cincinnati’s four runs to Philadelphia’s one—confirmed the un

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⚾ MLB·May 20, 2026

ATH @ LAA

The Diamond Signal model projected a 47.6 % expected probability of victory for ATH, with a low-confidence watch signal suggesting elevated variance in the outcome. The actual result, a decisive 14-6 win for ATH, invalidated the projected probability. The divergence between expec

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⚾ MLB·May 20, 2026

NYM @ WSH

The Diamond Signal projection for the May 19, 2026 matchup between the New York Mets (NYM) and Washington Nationals (WSH) anticipated a narrow outcome favoring the home team, Washington, with a projected probability of 50.1% against NYM’s 49.9%. The model’s low-confidence designa

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⚾ MLB·May 20, 2026

TOR @ NYY

The Diamond Signal’s projection for the May 19, 2026 matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees anticipated a closely contested contest, favoring the home team at a 50.8% projected probability. The actual outcome—an extra-inning victory for the Yankees by a 5–4 fi

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⚾ MLB·May 20, 2026

ATL @ MIA

The Diamond Signal model projected a tightly contested matchup between the Atlanta Braves and the Miami Marlins, favoring the Braves by a slim margin of 49.9% to 50.1%. While the favored team did secure the victory, the actual outcome deviated from the projected probability by +5

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⚾ MLB·May 20, 2026

PIT @ STL

The Diamond Signal projection favored the St. Louis Cardinals (STL) with a 54.5% projected probability of victory, a modest preference corroborated by public market valuations at 51.5%. The actual outcome aligned with the model’s directional call, as STL secured a 9-6 victory ove

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