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MLB Debriefings

All our statistical post-game MLB analyses, generated the day after each resolved game.

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⚾ MLB·May 15, 2026

STL @ ATH

The Diamond Signal model projected a 44.7% projected probability of victory for STL against ATH, favoring the Cardinals with low confidence and classifying the matchup as a WATCH scenario. The final outcome saw STL secure a narrow 5-4 victory, validating the model’s directional c

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⚾ MLB·May 15, 2026

KC @ CWS

The Diamond Signal model projected a closely contested matchup between the Kansas City Royals (KC) and Chicago White Sox (CWS), favoring CWS with a 50.7% projected probability of victory. The final outcome diverged from this projection, with CWS securing a decisive 6-2 victory. W

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⚾ MLB·May 15, 2026

COL @ PIT

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored Pittsburgh (57.0%) over Colorado (43.0%), a modest divergence from the public prediction market’s 61.0% assessment. The game outcome validated Pittsburgh’s projected advantage, with the Pirates securing a 7-2 victory on their home

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⚾ MLB·May 15, 2026

MIA @ MIN

The Diamond model projected Miami (MIA) as the marginally favored team with a 49.2% projected probability of victory, while the public prediction market indicated a 50.5% chance for Minnesota (MIN). The actual outcome diverged from both projections, as MIN decisively defeated MIA

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⚾ MLB·May 15, 2026

SD @ MIL

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection accurately favored the Milwaukee Brewers (MIL) with a 55.2% projected probability of victory, aligning closely with the public market’s 55.1% assessment—a divergence of just +0.1 percentage points. The final scoreline of SD 1, MIL 7 reflected

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⚾ MLB·May 15, 2026

PHI @ BOS

The Diamond Signal model projected Boston (BOS) as the favored team with a 50.7% chance of victory, while Philadelphia (PHI) was assigned a 49.3% projected probability. The match ended with PHI securing a 3-1 win, validating the directional outcome despite the model’s slight misa

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⚾ MLB·May 14, 2026

SF @ LAD

--- The Diamond Signal model projected a Los Angeles Dodgers victory with a 56.6% probability, favoring them as the home team with Shohei Ohtani on the mound against Robbie Ray of the San Francisco Giants. The actual outcome validated the underlying logic of the projection, with

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⚾ MLB·May 14, 2026

NYY @ BAL

--- The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored Baltimore by a narrow margin (50.1% to New York’s 49.9%), assigning low confidence to the outcome. The model’s edge was attributed to contextual and recent-form advantages, particularly in starting pitching and bullpen calibra

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⚾ MLB·May 14, 2026

DET @ NYM

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projected probability favored the New York Mets (55.9%) over the Detroit Tigers, though the model assigned a low confidence signal. The final outcome validated the favored team’s victory, with the Mets securing a narrow 3-2 win. However, the game’s prog

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⚾ MLB·May 14, 2026

COL @ PIT

The Diamond Signal model’s projection of a Pittsburgh Pirates victory was materially invalidated by the Colorado Rockies’ dominant offensive and pitching performance. The pre-match favored team, PIT, was outscored 10-4 in a game that featured multiple pitcher failures, critical d

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⚾ MLB·May 14, 2026

TB @ TOR

The Diamond Signal model projected a 59.0% probability of a Toronto Blue Jays victory against the Tampa Bay Rays on May 13, 2026, reflecting a modest but clear favored team advantage based on dynamic rating adjustments and series context. The actual outcome—a 5-3 Blue Jays win—co

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⚾ MLB·May 14, 2026

STL @ ATH

The Diamond Signal model projected a tightly contested matchup with a marginal preference for the St. Louis Cardinals (49.5 % projected probability) despite assigning a LOW confidence classification and WATCH signal type. The Athletic Club of Houston (ATH) ultimately secured a de

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⚾ MLB·May 14, 2026

LAA @ CLE

The Diamond Signal model projected a narrow but meaningful projected probability advantage for the Cleveland Guardians (51.4%) over the Los Angeles Angels (48.6%), with a low confidence signal designated as a WATCH scenario. The final outcome confirmed the favored team’s victory,

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⚾ MLB·May 14, 2026

CHC @ ATL

--- The Diamond Signal model projected a tightly contested matchup between the Chicago Cubs (CHC) and Atlanta Braves (ATL), favoring the Cubs at 48.6% to Atlanta’s 51.4% with low confidence. The game results did not align with this projection, as Atlanta secured a 4-1 victory, in

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⚾ MLB·May 14, 2026

WSH @ CIN

The Diamond Signal model projected a Cincinnati victory with a 53.6% probability, favoring the Reds in a contest classified as a "WATCH" due to low confidence. The actual outcome diverged from the model’s expectation, as Washington secured a one-run triumph in a high-scoring, bac

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⚾ MLB·May 14, 2026

KC @ CWS

The Diamond Signal projection framed Chicago White Sox (CWS) as the favored team with a 53.9% projected probability of victory, contrasting with the Kansas City Royals (KC) at 46.1%. The model assigned a low confidence signal with a "WATCH" classification, indicating elevated var

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⚾ MLB·May 14, 2026

AZ @ TEX

The Diamond Signal model projected a narrow outcome favoring Arizona with a 47.6% projected probability, while the public prediction market placed Texas at a 50.5% favored rate. The game outcome contradicted the model’s assessment, as Texas secured a 6-5 victory in a tightly cont

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⚾ MLB·May 14, 2026

SEA @ HOU

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored Seattle by 48.5% against Houston’s 51.5%, with a classification of LOW confidence and a WATCH signal. The final outcome diverged from this projection, as Houston secured a 4-3 victory in a tightly contested matchup. While the favo

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⚾ MLB·May 14, 2026

SD @ MIL

--- The Diamond Signal model projected a Milwaukee Brewers victory with a 57.4% probability, deviating only slightly from the public prediction market at 57.9%. The observed outcome—San Diego Padres triumphing 3-1—invalidated the statistical projection. While the favored team did

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⚾ MLB·May 14, 2026

MIA @ MIN

--- The Diamond Signal model projected a tightly contested matchup between Miami and Minnesota, assigning a 46.8% probability of victory to the visiting Marlins, with a LOW confidence designation and a WATCH signal type. The final outcome validated the directional projection, as

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