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MLB Debriefings

All our statistical post-game MLB analyses, generated the day after each resolved game.

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⚾ MLB·Jun 21, 2026

BAL @ LAD

The Diamond Signal model projected a 59.6% probability of victory for the Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD) against the Baltimore Orioles (BAL), favoring the road team despite their inferior record. The pre-match calibration gap of 7.7 percentage points versus the public market suggested

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⚾ MLB·Jun 21, 2026

PIT @ COL

The Diamond Signal projection favored Pittsburgh by a narrow margin of 44.9 % to Colorado’s 55.1 %, assigning a medium-confidence dynamic rating with an analytical edge. The actual outcome saw Colorado secure a 2-1 victory, a result that diverged from the statistical projection.

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⚾ MLB·Jun 21, 2026

BOS @ SEA

The projected probability of 57.8 % for the Seattle Mariners was not realized in the match outcome, as the Boston Red Sox secured a definitive 5-1 victory. The divergence between the projected probability and the actual result represents a notable calibration gap, though the magn

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⚾ MLB·Jun 21, 2026

SF @ MIA

The Diamond Signal model projected a 56.2 % probability of victory for the Miami Marlins (MIA) against the San Francisco Giants (SF) on June 20, 2026. The projection was directionally accurate, as MIA secured a 6-3 victory at home. While the magnitude of the win (three runs) slig

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⚾ MLB·Jun 21, 2026

LAA @ ATH

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Athletics (ATH) with a 50.4% probability of victory, a marginal advantage over the Los Angeles Angels (LAA) at 49.6%. The model’s MEDIUM confidence signal, categorized as WATCH, suggested a closely contested matchup. The actua

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⚾ MLB·Jun 21, 2026

CLE @ HOU

The Diamond Signal model projected a CLE victory with a 49.5% probability, favoring the team and assigning a MEDIUM confidence level. The actual outcome diverged from public market expectations, which favored CLE at 56.4%. While the model’s favored team ultimately prevailed, the

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⚾ MLB·Jun 21, 2026

CWS @ DET

The pre-match projection favored Chicago White Sox (CWS) at 46.9% against Detroit Tigers (DET) at 53.1%, with a medium confidence signal classified as a WATCH. The model’s favored team did not align with the final outcome, as Detroit secured the victory by a 4-1 margin. The discr

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⚾ MLB·Jun 21, 2026

MIL @ ATL

The Diamond Signal model projected a balanced contest between the Milwaukee Brewers (MIL) and Atlanta Braves (ATL) on June 20, 2026, with each team assigned a 50.0% projected probability of victory. The model favored the Brewers without decisive confidence, classifying the matchu

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⚾ MLB·Jun 21, 2026

TOR @ CHC

The Diamond Signal model projected a closely contested matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs, with Toronto holding a slight 49.6 % projected probability of victory compared to the Cubs' 50.4 %. The model's favored team, Toronto, ultimately secured the win, valida

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⚾ MLB·Jun 21, 2026

NYM @ PHI

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection anticipated a Philadelphia victory with a 58.5 % probability, reflecting a moderate confidence level and a classification of "WATCH" for the contest. The actual outcome—a 15-3 defeat of the New York Mets by the Philadelphia Phillies—validated

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⚾ MLB·Jun 21, 2026

SD @ TEX

Diamond Signal’s projection for this contest favored the Texas Rangers at a 54.3% projected probability of victory, with the San Diego Padres assigned a 45.7% chance. The model’s confidence in this outcome was characterized as *medium*, with the divergence from public perception

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⚾ MLB·Jun 21, 2026

MIN @ AZ

The Diamond Signal model projected a 54.6% probability of victory for Arizona, with a medium confidence signal and a "WATCH" designation. This projection was invalidated by the final score, as the Minnesota Twins decisively defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 16-8. The model’s favo

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⚾ MLB·Jun 21, 2026

WSH @ TB

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection assigned Tampa Bay a 52.3% probability of victory over Washington, narrowly favoring the home team with medium confidence in a WATCH signal. The actual outcome contradicted this projection, as Washington secured a 4–3 victory in a tightly con

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⚾ MLB·Jun 20, 2026

CIN @ NYY

The Diamond Signal’s projected probability of a New York Yankees victory (57.8 %) was validated by the match outcome, as the Bronx side secured a 5-0 shutout victory over the Cincinnati Reds. The final scoreline represented a complete inversion of the offensive expectations, give

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⚾ MLB·Jun 20, 2026

MIL @ ATL

The Diamond Signal model projected a closely contested matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers (MIL) and Atlanta Braves (ATL), assigning a 50.0% projected probability to each team’s victory. The favored team, as per our dynamic rating, was MIL, with a medium-confidence signal categ

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⚾ MLB·Jun 20, 2026

LAA @ ATH

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Los Angeles Angels (LAA) by a narrow margin, assigning them a 49.6% projected probability of victory compared to the Athletics (ATH) at 50.4%. The game outcome diverged from this expectation, with ATH securing a 12-11 victory in a

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⚾ MLB·Jun 20, 2026

SD @ TEX

The Diamond Signal projection favored the Texas Rangers by a narrow margin of 50.9% to 49.1%, aligning with the eventual outcome in which Texas secured the victory. The model correctly identified the home team as the more likely victor, though the 2-run margin exceeded the projec

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⚾ MLB·Jun 20, 2026

BAL @ LAD

The Diamond Signal projection favored the Los Angeles Dodgers (58.8%) over the Baltimore Orioles (41.2%) prior to the matchup, aligning with the baseball game’s outcome where LAD secured the win by a one-run margin. The model’s favored team, LAD, delivered a narrow victory despit

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⚾ MLB·Jun 20, 2026

PIT @ COL

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored Pittsburgh by a 40.6% to 59.4% margin, assigning medium confidence to the outcome while designating the matchup as a *WATCH*. The actual result saw Colorado prevail by a 4-3 scoreline, inverting the favored team’s outcome. While t

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⚾ MLB·Jun 20, 2026

BOS @ SEA

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Seattle Mariners (SEA) with a 51.1% projected probability of victory, narrowly outweighing the Boston Red Sox (BOS) at 48.9%. The divergence between projected and actual outcomes was within a narrow margin, as Boston’s offensive e

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