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MLB Debriefings

All our statistical post-game MLB analyses, generated the day after each resolved game.

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⚾ MLB·Jun 11, 2026

AZ @ MIA

The Diamond Signal model projected a tightly contested matchup between Arizona and Miami, with Arizona favored at a 49.5% projected probability. The game’s outcome invalidated this projection, as Miami’s decisive 8-0 victory stands in stark contrast to the projected near-parity.

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⚾ MLB·Jun 11, 2026

NYY @ CLE

The Diamond Signal model projected a Cleveland Guardians (CLE) victory with a 52.2% probability, favoring CLE under a medium-confidence signal classified as WATCH. The actual outcome contradicted this projection, as the New York Yankees (NYY) secured an 8-4 victory at Progressive

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⚾ MLB·Jun 11, 2026

STL @ NYM

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection assigned a 51.5% probability of victory to the New York Mets (NYM), favoring them to edge out the St. Louis Cardinals (STL) in a closely contested matchup. The final scoreline of 9-2 in favor of STL represents a statistically significant

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⚾ MLB·Jun 10, 2026

MIN @ DET

The Diamond Signal model projected Detroit (DET) as the favored team with a 56.7% probability of victory, while Minnesota (MIN) was assigned a 43.3% chance. The actual outcome confirmed the projection, as Detroit defeated Minnesota by a score of 10–4. The margin of victory (6 run

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⚾ MLB·Jun 10, 2026

NYY @ CLE

The Diamond Signal model projected a 54.9% probability of a Cleveland victory, favoring the Guardians by a modest margin under a medium-confidence SERIES_RULE signal. The observed outcome—New York’s 3-2 win—represented a divergence from the projection, though the one-run margin a

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⚾ MLB·Jun 10, 2026

ATL @ CWS

The Diamond Signal model projected a projected probability of 51.9% in favor of the Chicago White Sox (CWS), assigning a MEDIUM confidence level with a WATCH signal. The actual outcome saw the White Sox secure a 6-5 victory, with the Atlanta Braves (ATL) failing to convert their

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⚾ MLB·Jun 10, 2026

CHC @ COL

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Chicago Cubs (CHC) with a 48.8 % projected probability of victory, while the Colorado Rockies (COL) were assigned a 51.2 % projected probability. The game outcome diverged from this expectation, as the home team (COL) secured a de

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⚾ MLB·Jun 10, 2026

SEA @ BAL

The Diamond Signal model projected a Baltimore victory with a 54.9% probability, favoring the Orioles based on dynamic ratings accounting for recent form, starting pitching, and contextual factors. While the favored team ultimately emerged victorious, the performance gap was narr

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⚾ MLB·Jun 10, 2026

CIN @ SD

The projected probability favored the San Diego Padres (51.2%) over the Cincinnati Reds (48.8%), indicating a closely contested matchup with a slight edge to the home team. The game outcome, however, diverged from this assessment, as the Reds secured a 5-3 victory in a match that

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⚾ MLB·Jun 10, 2026

TEX @ KC

The Diamond Signal model projected a 51.4% likelihood of a Kansas City victory, favoring the home team by a narrow margin. The actual outcome validated this projection, as the Royals secured a 5-3 win over the Texas Rangers. While the final score differed by two runs from the pro

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⚾ MLB·Jun 10, 2026

STL @ NYM

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection assigned a 49.2 % probability of victory to the St. Louis Cardinals (STL) against the New York Mets (NYM), with the model favoring STL at a medium-confidence confidence level under a "WATCH" signal type. The projected probability gap of -4.5

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⚾ MLB·Jun 10, 2026

PHI @ TOR

The Diamond Signal projection assigned a 47.9 % probability of victory to the Philadelphia Phillies, favoring them as the slight statistical favorite despite the Toronto Blue Jays carrying a 52.1 % projected probability. The divergence of 2.6 percentage points between Diamond’s m

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⚾ MLB·Jun 10, 2026

LAD @ PIT

The Diamond Signal model projected the Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT) as the slightly favored team in this road matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD), assigning a 53.0% projected probability to PIT’s victory compared to LAD’s 47.0%. The divergence from public market projections

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⚾ MLB·Jun 10, 2026

WSH @ SF

The Diamond Signal model projected a San Francisco team victory with a 52.6 % favored probability, while Washington’s projection stood at 47.4 %. The game outcome diverged from the predicted favorite, as Washington secured a 6-3 win. This represents a notable calibration gap betw

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⚾ MLB·Jun 10, 2026

BOS @ TB

The Diamond Signal projection favored Boston by a narrow margin, assigning a 49.2% projected probability of victory compared to Tampa Bay’s 50.8%. This assessment fell within the medium-confidence band, indicating a matchup where either team could reasonably claim the win. In rea

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⚾ MLB·Jun 10, 2026

MIL @ ATH

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Athletics (ATH) with a 50.3% probability of victory, narrowly outperforming the public market’s 50.9% assessment. The game unfolded in line with the statistical consensus, with the home team securing the win despite trailing i

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⚾ MLB·Jun 9, 2026

CIN @ SD

The Diamond Signal model projected a 57.8 % favored probability for the San Diego Padres (SD) against the Cincinnati Reds (CIN) on June 8, 2026, with a medium confidence rating. The actual outcome aligned closely with this projection, as SD secured a definitive 6-2 victory. The g

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⚾ MLB·Jun 9, 2026

PHI @ TOR

The Diamond Signal's pre-match projection favored Philadelphia by 44.9% to Toronto's 55.1%, with a medium confidence classification and a watch signal. The actual outcome saw Philadelphia secure a 5-2 victory, validating the direction of the projection toward the favored team. Wh

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⚾ MLB·Jun 9, 2026

NYY @ CLE

The Diamond Signal model projected a New York Yankees (NYY) victory with a 47.3% probability, despite the Cleveland Guardians (CLE) being favored by the public market at 54.3%. The actual outcome validated the model’s assessment, as NYY secured a 7-5 win in a high-scoring affair.

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⚾ MLB·Jun 9, 2026

MIL @ ATH

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection correctly identified the Milwaukee Brewers (MIL) as the favored team, assigning a 47.5 % projected probability of victory compared to the Athletics’ (ATH) 52.5 %. The projected divergence (+5.0 %) aligned with the final outcome, where MIL sec

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