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MLB Debriefings

All our statistical post-game MLB analyses, generated the day after each resolved game.

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⚾ MLB·Jun 26, 2026

NYY @ BOS

The Diamond Signal model projected a 49.0 % chance of victory for the New York Yankees (NYY), favoring them by a narrow margin over the Boston Red Sox (BOS) at 51.0 %. The actual outcome diverged from this expectation, as the Red Sox secured a 6-3 victory, invalidating the projec

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⚾ MLB·Jun 26, 2026

KC @ TB

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Tampa Bay Rays by a projected probability of 51.1%, assigning a medium-confidence rating to the scenario. The Kansas City Royals were projected at 48.9%, reflecting a tightly contested matchup. The actual outcome diverged from the

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⚾ MLB·Jun 26, 2026

ATH @ SF

Diamond Signal’s projected probability of 49.8% for ATH to secure victory was validated by the team’s 9–6 win. The model’s favored status, despite the narrow margin, aligned with the outcome, though the margin of victory (3 runs) exceeded the typical expectation for a closely con

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⚾ MLB·Jun 26, 2026

CHC @ NYM

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection assigned a 49.1% projected probability of victory to the Chicago Cubs (CHC), with the New York Mets (NYM) favored at 50.9% by a narrow margin. The final outcome—CHC’s 4–3 victory—validated the model’s assessment, as the Cubs secured the win d

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⚾ MLB·Jun 26, 2026

AZ @ STL

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the St. Louis Cardinals (STL) by a projected probability of 53.7%, with Arizona (AZ) at 46.3%. The model assigned a MEDIUM confidence rating and classified the game as a WATCH signal due to a series of contextual factors. The actual o

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⚾ MLB·Jun 25, 2026

LAD @ MIN

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Minnesota Twins (MIN) with a 57.2% projected probability of victory, marginally higher than Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD) at 42.8%. The model’s calibration indicated a medium-confidence assessment with an edge signal, suggesting a non

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⚾ MLB·Jun 25, 2026

BOS @ COL

The Diamond Signal projection of a Colorado Rockies victory (51.3 %) aligned with the actual outcome, as the Rockies secured an 8-6 win over the Boston Red Sox. The favored team’s success validates the model’s calibration, though the four-run margin exceeded the projected margin

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⚾ MLB·Jun 25, 2026

SEA @ PIT

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection of 56.1 % in favor of Pittsburgh was substantially validated by the outcome of the game. Pittsburgh’s 11-1 victory over Seattle exceeded the projected margin, though the categorical outcome (PIT victory) aligned with the model’s direction

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⚾ MLB·Jun 25, 2026

KC @ TB

The Diamond Signal projection for the June 24, 2026 matchup between the Kansas City Royals (KC) and Tampa Bay Rays (TB) anticipated a TB victory with a 61.1% probability against KC’s 38.9%. The final score of 5-3 in favor of TB validated the projection at the outcome level, align

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⚾ MLB·Jun 25, 2026

NYY @ DET

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the New York Yankees (NYY) at 47.5% against the Detroit Tigers (DET), with a medium-confidence assessment labeled as a "WATCH" signal. The model’s favored team designation—despite the statistical underdog status—reflected a nuanced ca

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⚾ MLB·Jun 25, 2026

MIL @ CIN

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored CIN at 51.0%, with MIL at 49.0%, assigning a medium-confidence "WATCH" signal based on an enriched dynamic-rating model. The projected probability indicated a slight edge for the home team, though the divergence from the public market

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⚾ MLB·Jun 25, 2026

TEX @ MIA

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection correctly identified Miami as the favored team, assigning a projected probability of 54.8% to the Marlins’ victory. The model’s calibration indicated a medium-confidence signal with a "WATCH" designation, suggesting neither an overwhelming no

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⚾ MLB·Jun 25, 2026

ATL @ SD

The Diamond Signal projected a 40.6% chance of victory for the Atlanta Braves (ATL) against the San Diego Padres (SD), favoring Atlanta as the statistical underdog in a contest marked by medium confidence and classified as a "WATCH" signal. The actual outcome diverged significant

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⚾ MLB·Jun 25, 2026

PHI @ WSH

The Diamond Signal model projected a Philadelphia win with a 48.9% probability, while the public prediction market favored Washington at 44.9%. The actual outcome validated the Diamond Signal projection, as Philadelphia secured a narrow 5-4 victory despite trailing late in the co

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⚾ MLB·Jun 25, 2026

HOU @ TOR

The Diamond Signal model projected a Toronto victory with a 54.5% probability, favoring the home team based on dynamic ratings that weighted recent form, rest, and pitching matchups. The actual result deviated from this projection, as Houston secured the win despite being the und

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⚾ MLB·Jun 25, 2026

ATH @ SF

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the San Francisco Giants by a narrow margin of 50.4% to 49.6%, assigning a medium-confidence signal of WATCH to the away team. The actual outcome aligned with this analytical framework, as SF secured a 2-1 victory on the road. While t

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⚾ MLB·Jun 25, 2026

BAL @ LAA

Our pre-match projection favored the Baltimore Orioles (BAL) by a projected probability of 49.6% against the Los Angeles Angels (LAA) at 50.4%, with a medium confidence level and classified as a "WATCH" signal. The game outcome diverged from the projected probabilities, with the

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⚾ MLB·Jun 25, 2026

CLE @ CWS

The Diamond Signal model projected a Chicago White Sox (CWS) victory with a 51.4% projected probability, narrowly favoring the home team. The model’s divergence from public market sentiment (+2.3 percentage points) indicated a modest calibration advantage in favor of the White So

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⚾ MLB·Jun 25, 2026

CHC @ NYM

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection of a 50.0% favored probability for the Chicago Cubs (CHC) against the New York Mets (NYM) was validated by the outcome, as the Cubs secured a decisive 10-3 victory. The projected probability gap of +0.9 points relative to the public marke

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⚾ MLB·Jun 25, 2026

CHC @ NYM

The pre-match projection favored the New York Mets (NYM) with a 51.0% projected probability of victory, while the Chicago Cubs (CHC) were assigned a 49.0% projected probability. The Diamond Signal’s medium-confidence *WATCH* designation reflected the narrow calibration gap betwee

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