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MLB Debriefings

All our statistical post-game MLB analyses, generated the day after each resolved game.

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313 analyses published

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⚾ MLB·Jun 23, 2026

PHI @ WSH

The Diamond Signal model projected Philadelphia at 49.1% probability of victory against Washington, with a medium-confidence signal of WATCH, favoring the Phillies. The model’s calibration gap of +100.0 points indicated a slight underestimation of Washington’s competitive standin

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⚾ MLB·Jun 23, 2026

NYY @ DET

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the New York Yankees at a 48.0% projected probability of victory, with a medium-confidence signal categorized as a WATCH. This assessment was based on an enriched dynamic-rating model incorporating recent team form, travel distanc

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⚾ MLB·Jun 23, 2026

BOS @ COL

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored Boston by 47.7% to Colorado’s 52.3%, assigning the hosts a narrow statistical advantage with medium confidence and a WATCH classification. The model’s calibration suggested a closely contested matchup where home-field advantage and dy

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⚾ MLB·Jun 23, 2026

TEX @ MIA

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Miami Marlins (MIA) at 51.2%, with a medium confidence signal classified as a *WATCH* scenario. The Texas Rangers (TEX) were assigned a 48.8% projected probability, indicating a closely contested matchup where the home team he

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⚾ MLB·Jun 23, 2026

HOU @ TOR

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection assigned a 53.7% projected probability to the Toronto Blue Jays (TOR) as the favored team, with a medium-confidence signal of "WATCH." The Houston Astros (HOU) were projected at 46.3%. The actual outcome validated the projection: the favored

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⚾ MLB·Jun 22, 2026

BAL @ LAD

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD) by a narrow margin, allocating a 51.3% projected win probability against the Baltimore Orioles (BAL). The model assigned a MEDIUM confidence rating to this edge, indicating a closely contested matchup wit

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⚾ MLB·Jun 22, 2026

MIL @ ATL

The Diamond Signal projection anticipated a competitive matchup with Milwaukee favored at 41.3% against Atlanta’s 58.7%, though our model’s confidence level was classified as medium. The projected outcome was invalidated by the final score, as the Brewers secured a decisive 9-4 v

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⚾ MLB·Jun 22, 2026

BOS @ SEA

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Seattle Mariners at 62.9%, with Boston projected at 37.1%. The model’s medium-confidence "series rule" signal suggested Seattle’s structural advantage in this three-game set, compounded by contextual factors such as trailing defic

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⚾ MLB·Jun 22, 2026

CLE @ HOU

The Diamond Signal model projected a closely contested matchup between CLE and HOU, with a slight preference for the visiting team at 49.7% compared to the public market's 55.5% valuation favoring HOU. The actual outcome saw HOU secure a narrow 2-1 victory, confirming the home te

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⚾ MLB·Jun 22, 2026

LAA @ ATH

The Diamond Signal model projected LAA to win with a 49.3% probability against ATH’s 50.7%, favoring the Angels by a narrow margin. The model operated under a MEDIUM confidence classification with a WATCH signal, indicating marginal uncertainty due to contextual factors such as s

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⚾ MLB·Jun 22, 2026

STL @ KC

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection assigned a 42.9% favored probability to the St. Louis Cardinals (STL), with a medium-confidence signal flagged as WATCH. The Kansas City Royals (KC) were projected to secure a 57.1% probability of victory. The actual outcome reversed these ex

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⚾ MLB·Jun 22, 2026

SD @ TEX

Diamond Signal’s pre-match assessment projected a Texas Rangers victory with a 53.1 % probability, aligning with the public market’s 58.6 % favored probability but indicating a slightly lower confidence tier (MEDIUM). The game’s outcome validated the projection, as the Rangers se

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⚾ MLB·Jun 22, 2026

NYM @ PHI

The Diamond Signal’s projected probability of 60.3% for the Philadelphia Phillies to secure a victory was directionally accurate, though the magnitude of the margin differed from the final outcome. The model anticipated a Phillies win based on superior starting pitching and home

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⚾ MLB·Jun 22, 2026

SF @ MIA

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the San Francisco Giants (SF) at 46.0% with a medium-confidence signal of WATCH, while the public prediction market assigned a 43.3% probability to the Miami Marlins (MIA) emerging victorious. The analytical framework weighted recent

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⚾ MLB·Jun 22, 2026

TOR @ CHC

The Diamond Signal projection favored the Chicago Cubs (CHC) by a narrow margin of 50.3% to 49.7%, with a medium confidence signal classified as "WATCH." The game outcome, however, resulted in a Toronto Blue Jays (TOR) victory—a result that diverged from the projected favored tea

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⚾ MLB·Jun 22, 2026

CIN @ NYY

The Diamond Signal projection favored the New York Yankees with a 51.9% projected probability of victory, narrowly outperforming the public market's 52.0% favored team designation. The Cincinnati Reds (CIN) defied the statistical expectation by securing a 4-1 victory in a game wh

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⚾ MLB·Jun 22, 2026

PIT @ COL

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection correctly identified Pittsburgh as the favored team in a closely contested matchup, assigning a 45.0% projected probability of victory while the public market favored them at 43.3%. The final scoreline of 8-6 in favor of Pittsburgh valida

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⚾ MLB·Jun 22, 2026

WSH @ TB

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection correctly identified Tampa Bay as the team most likely to secure the victory, assigning them a 54.8 % projected probability of success compared to Washington’s 45.2 %. The actual outcome aligned with this assessment, as the Rays prevailed

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⚾ MLB·Jun 21, 2026

CIN @ NYY

The Diamond Signal model projected a New York Yankees (NYY) victory by a narrow margin, assigning a 52.9% projected probability to their success. The final outcome—Cincinnati Reds (CIN) 10, NYY 2—invalidated the model’s primary expectation. While the disparity in runs scored (8)

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⚾ MLB·Jun 21, 2026

BAL @ LAD

The Diamond Signal model projected a 59.6% probability of victory for the Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD) against the Baltimore Orioles (BAL), favoring the road team despite their inferior record. The pre-match calibration gap of 7.7 percentage points versus the public market suggested

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