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MLB Debriefings

All our statistical post-game MLB analyses, generated the day after each resolved game.

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92 analyses published

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⚾ MLB·Jun 24, 2026

BAL @ LAA

The Diamond Signal model projected a closely contested matchup between the Baltimore Orioles (BAL) and Los Angeles Angels (LAA), favoring the Angels with a 50.9% projected probability of victory. The final outcome—LAA’s 5-1 triumph—aligns with the model’s favored outcome, though

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⚾ MLB·Jun 24, 2026

CHC @ NYM

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection assigned a 43.2 % projected probability to the Chicago Cubs (CHC) against the New York Mets (NYM), favoring the home team with medium confidence under a WATCH signal. The Cubs’ victory, delivered by a 9-6 scoreline, aligns with the fundamenta

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⚾ MLB·Jun 24, 2026

BOS @ COL

The Diamond Signal model projected a Boston Red Sox victory with a 48.4% probability, favoring the team despite the Colorado Rockies holding a narrow 51.6% projection edge. The actual outcome validated the Diamond Signal’s assessment, as Boston secured a 5-2 win. While the model’

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⚾ MLB·Jun 24, 2026

SEA @ PIT

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Pittsburgh Pirates by a projected probability of 53.9% to Seattle’s 46.1%, with a medium-confidence signal classified as a WATCH scenario. The analytical framework identified the Pirates as the statistically favored team based on

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⚾ MLB·Jun 24, 2026

HOU @ TOR

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection correctly identified Houston as the favored team with a 48.9 % projected probability of victory, though the model’s confidence level was classified as MEDIUM. The public prediction market reflected a narrower gap at 54.7 %, indicating a diver

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⚾ MLB·Jun 24, 2026

PHI @ WSH

The Diamond Signal’s projected probability of a PHI victory (45.5%) diverged meaningfully from the pre-match public market consensus (39.7%), yet the outcome confirmed our methodological alignment with the game’s statistical realities. While the public market underweighted PHI’s

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⚾ MLB·Jun 24, 2026

TEX @ MIA

Diamond Signal’s pre-match analysis projected Miami (MIA) as the favored team with a 53.9% probability of victory, a medium-confidence "WATCH" signal derived from an enriched dynamic-rating model accounting for recent form, rest, travel, weather, park factors, bullpen performance

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⚾ MLB·Jun 24, 2026

ATL @ SD

The Diamond Signal projection favored the San Diego Padres (SD) with a 52.8% probability of victory, a modest divergence from the public market’s 49.0% assessment. The model’s confidence was classified as MEDIUM under a WATCH signal, indicating a matchup where situational factors

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⚾ MLB·Jun 24, 2026

KC @ TB

The Diamond Signal projection favored Tampa Bay at a 60.6% probability, reflecting a moderate calibration gap between the model and public market expectations (62.2%). The divergence of -1.6 percentage points suggested a slight overestimation of TB’s advantage by external sources

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⚾ MLB·Jun 24, 2026

ATH @ SF

The Diamond Signal projected a narrow preference for the San Francisco Giants (51.0%) over the Athletics, with a medium-confidence Signal type of WATCH. The model's favored team did indeed secure the victory, though the final score underperformed expectations slightly relative to

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⚾ MLB·Jun 24, 2026

NYY @ DET

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Detroit Tigers by a narrow margin of 50.5% to 49.5%, assigning a MEDIUM confidence rating and a WATCH signal classification. The game outcome diverged from this statistical expectation, with the New York Yankees securing a 4–3

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⚾ MLB·Jun 24, 2026

MIL @ CIN

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Milwaukee Brewers (MIL) with a 49.7% projected probability of victory, while the Cincinnati Reds (CIN) carried a 50.3% probability. The model assigned a MEDIUM confidence rating, categorizing the matchup as a WATCH scenario. The a

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⚾ MLB·Jun 24, 2026

CLE @ CWS

The Diamond Signal projection favored the Cleveland Guardians by a narrow margin (49.9% to 50.1%), assigning a medium-confidence classification under a WATCH signal type. The model’s calibrated dynamic rating, accounting for recent form, rest cycles, travel burden, and bullpen de

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⚾ MLB·Jun 23, 2026

KC @ TB

The Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored Tampa Bay with a 52.3% projected probability of victory, a calibration gap of +10.7 percentage points below the public prediction market’s 63.0% assessment. In the event, the Kansas City Royals secured a 2–1 victory over the Tampa

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⚾ MLB·Jun 23, 2026

MIL @ CIN

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Cincinnati Reds by a narrow margin, assigning a 51.1 % probability of victory versus Milwaukee’s 48.9 %. The game outcome diverged from the statistical expectation, with the Milwaukee Brewers securing a 2-1 victory in a tightly co

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⚾ MLB·Jun 23, 2026

LAD @ MIN

The Diamond Signal model’s projection for this matchup was accurate in directionality but underestimated the margin of victory. Our system assigned a 49.3% projected probability to the Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD) defeating the Minnesota Twins (MIN), whereas the actual outcome resul

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⚾ MLB·Jun 23, 2026

AZ @ STL

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored Arizona by a narrow margin, assigning a 48.9% projected probability to the Diamondbacks compared to St. Louis’ 51.1%. The game, played on June 22, 2026, concluded with the Cardinals securing a 3–2 victory, validating the statistical u

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⚾ MLB·Jun 23, 2026

CLE @ CWS

Diamond Signal’s pre-match projection favored the Chicago White Sox (CWS) with a 55.2% implied probability of victory, while the Cleveland Guardians (CLE) were assigned a 44.8% chance. The model’s favored team, CWS, prevailed in a 6-5 outcome, confirming the directional accuracy

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⚾ MLB·Jun 23, 2026

BAL @ LAA

The Diamond Signal projection for the BAL @ LAA matchup (2026-06-22) anticipated a competitive contest, favoring BAL with a 46.4% projected probability of victory against LAA’s 53.6%. The final outcome deviated from the public market consensus (40.7% BAL) but aligned with our ana

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⚾ MLB·Jun 23, 2026

CHC @ NYM

Diamond Signal’s pre-match analysis projected the Chicago Cubs (CHC) as the favored team with a 42.5% projected probability of victory, while the New York Mets (NYM) were assigned a 57.5% probability. The model’s dynamic-rating system, incorporating recent form, rest, travel, wea

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